Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquis...